They also analysed the text messages between Dr Hulbert and Patient A and discovered 'the vast majority were initiated by Patient A', who also first began signing off with an 'x'. Investigators said Patient A's testimony was 'evasive' and unreliable. Hulbert's practising privileges were initially suspended following Patient A's complaint before being reinstated two months later.Īt the Medical Practitioners Tribunal Service this week, Dr Hulbert, of St Albans, Hertfordshire, was cleared of sexually motivated misconduct following a four-year probe which began in 2018. She also filed a complaint to the private healthcare organisation BMI, claiming the doctor had asked her out for dinner during a consultation and rubbed her thigh ahead of her Phacoemulsification operation. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.Ĭopyright (c) 2023 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.An eye surgeon who hired his Cam-girl model patient before allegedly trying to grope her has been cleared of sexual misconduct by a medical tribunal - salvaging his 36-year career.ĭr Mark Hulbert, 59, was accused of trying to kiss and inappropriately touch the webcam porn actress - known only as Patient A - after he hired her to work for him as a property agent following a £700 cataract procedure.ĭr Hulbert was also accused of bombarding her with 'inappropriate' messages, in which he called her 'good girl', 'girlie' and 'gorgeous woman'. This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. His Hulbert Ratings tracks investment newsletters that pay a flat fee to be audited. Mark Hulbert is a regular contributor to MarketWatch. The shrewd strategy is to not play the game in the first place. The rewards of winning the game are minimal, and the risks of losing can be considerable. The bottom line: The Fed guessing game has poor odds. Because of this small sample size, the differences shown in the chart between buying on the date of the first rate cut and buying on the second are not significant at the 95% confidence level that statisticians often use to determine whether a pattern is genuine. But there's less here than meets the eye, since there are only a few complete rate cycles since 1980. Your odds of success seemingly go up for the three-month period following the second cut in a rate-cutting cycle, as you can see from the chart. On average since 1980, the stock market lost 0.4% over the three months following the second-to-last increase in a rate-hike cycle. In that event, your odds are even poorer. The only way to know for sure that a rate hike cycle has come to an end is to wait until the first rate cut, but if you wait until then your subsequent gain is likely to be lower (as judged by past experience, as you can see from the chart).Īnother risk you face when playing the Fed guessing game is being premature, betting that the rate hike cycle has come to an end when in fact it still has more to run. But there's an even stronger argument for not playing the Fed guessing game: Only in retrospect do you know the date on which the Fed makes its last hike. This statistic alone is reason to wonder what all the fuss is about. Notice that this average is essentially no different than the average of all dates since 1980. Focus first on the stock market's average three-month total return from the dates of every hike that immediately precedes a cut. I chose that start date for the chart because it was only in late 1979 that the Federal Reserve began announcing its target interest rate following meetings of its rate-setting committee. Take a look at the accompanying chart, which reflects all rate hike cycles since 1980. We should all just relax.Ī review of past rate hike cycles suggests there's no reason for the FOMO. It induces a fear of missing out among retirees and others who are not inclined to pay close attention to every nuance in the Fed's policy statements. It would be one thing if Wall Street's game were harmless, but it isn't. But there's little hard evidence that the odds of beating the market become meaningfully higher by winning the game. And it certainly seems plausible that the end of a rate-hike cycle would be an opportune time to bet on equities. That game certainly gives the legions of Fed watchers something to do. There's no need to play Wall Street's guessing game of trying to predict when the Federal Reserve will bring its rate-hike cycle to an end. Retirees, beware: Playing the Fed guessing game is pointless
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |